Interesting how the early days of this thread discuss the South Island as being the safest part of the country... but that was pre-Christchurch quake.

Really I don't know that any particular corner is safer than any other... ?

I guess we just have to follow our instincts and go with that.

I like the sound of the General's mountain... makes me feel a little vulnerable over here on the opposite coast... looking down at the estuary 50 feet below the house...

However I am 3km inland and there is 7 km of valley for the water to flow past me, rather than up my hill... ?

Land can rise up during a quake... so I'll go with that theory and 'rise above' the fear of a tsunami... ?

At the moment it seems we Northerners should be on standby to receive refugees from the South... ?

Well, KK, some reasons why the South Island seems safer, at least to me, are pretty standard. At the risk of boring you and repeating what I reckon has been repeated ad nauseam here, I'll make a short list. There are other reasons too, I'm sure, but here's the Reader's Digest version

-far fewer people

-much higher elevation

-no extant vulcanism

-some areas of less intense seismic activity

-good agricultural/primary sector base

I don't want try to minimise the tribulations of the good people of Christchurch and the surrounding area of Canterbury but most of the other areas in the South Island have been pretty untouched by the quake activities. I reckon the West Coast is likely to get a good kick in the pants and probably the northern South Island will get a bad jolt too but it looks like the East Coast from about midway down, to past Dunedin look, at this point, not too bad for quaking. I say this on my limited research of the region. I'm at the other end of the scale from being an expert but that's what I've been able to figure.

One result of the quakes, unfortunately, is a stream of migrants from South to North. That is a sad trail for the folks in Canterbury who feel the need to leave but this also tends to depopulate an already fairly sparsely populated area. This, in one pointed way, makes a possibility for more folks being able to move into the region. Having said that, I in no way desire to or encourage others to take adavantage of the misfortune of Cantabrians. I'm just making an observation about present realities.

I'd be pleased to hear what anyone thinks about the viability of the South Island for survivability.

Cheers,
- Michael

Hi and thanks, mrpanzergeneral.

Nice maps and if I am interpreting them correctly, the lower, eastern South Island looks less troubled by seismic activity than many other places in NZ. I believe you have some expertise in this area of study, yes? What is your assessment of the situation?

How does the eastern side of the lower South Island compare to the far north of NZ in terms of seismicity?

Thanks again. I look forward to your comments.

Cheers

'Ullo beardyboi...& welcome,
Actually, though Geology was my major in my first BSc, my chosen final subjects were Volcanology & Tectonics not Seismology, so I wouldn't be the best peson to listen to with regards to earthquake theory (though the Tectonics did pass over Seismotectonic Theory briefly), and I've never ever been a Geologist by trade - you generally need a Masters + 10 or so years in the field before you can truely call yourself "qualified" in the profession. So I'd hate to put you wrong with any mere opinion of mine. That said, I wouldn't know how to go about calculating seismic "risk" factors - I'm certainly no statistician - but there is a wealth of reputable information out there for New Zealand (one of the best - probably next to California and Japan - studied areas of the Earth, in an earthquake risk sense) and most of it makes good sense to me.
I would think that no place on Earth is actually temblor-free. And the next "big-one" could strike anywhere or perhaps rather I should say..."where-ever".... Everywhere on this planet is at risk. It's the nature of the place.

My assessment for NZ would be, that on the face of it, you are right, regarding the Sth E Sth Island.
For instance: [/img]
The above "risk" map, based on temblor history & frequency (remember only 1-200 years worth) would appear to demonstrate such. However, I tend to take such things with a grain of salt. eg: it's now apparently pretty certain by new found stratigraphic evidence, that all of the present day Western N.I. harbours were formed very quickly at the same time, by block faulting during the Kaikoura Orogeny, rather than by a more gradual process as originally first thought. I also know that the geology of NZ is particularly bizarre ! And indeed has a host of geologic structures that can't be found (or havn't YET been found) all together in one place in the world... for instance - The Sth Island, a conundrum....in the Nth, the basaltic oceanic crust of the Pacific Plate is going under the basaltic of The Australasian Plate, in the centre both plates are just butting togeather (both continental crust) forming the Sth Alps, in the Sth the Australasian is going under the Pacific (both basaltic).....In the Top of The North Island we have another geologic conundrum, The Northland Chaos, (I think by memory it is actually called The Spoirli (sp?) Chaos - after the Swiss geologist that discoverd it) , layers of sedimentary rock in synclines and anticlines that go from young to old then to the young again then to the old again then to the young again then to the old again then to the young then to the old again....the strata (continuous) having been folded so much (and some with evidence of violence) that they have been flipped on top of themselves many times.... with various layers being metamorphosized in between - from igneous intrusions (and extrusions) of BOTH basaltic (oceanic crust) and andesitic (continental crust) lavas....The Central Nth I. has always fascinated me.....The Auckland and Taupo volcanic zones especially...where the andesitic, basaltic and rhyolitic all meet ! (pretty sure that there is nowhere else in the world that has such a trifecta in such a small piece of landscape).
Anywhoos, I divert.
The whole place (NZ) is very geologically active, even on "my" maunga (it's not "mine" K.K tho' "thanks" it's Te Whanau's ),
there are soda fountains and warm silicate springs....so I doubt that it is inactive....merely dormant. I guess the crux of the matter is that Northland hasn't seen any earth shattering earth quaking experiances in living memory yet (tho' it could always happen), the tsunami risk here however is extremely high (and there is plenty evidence - both geologic and anthropologic - around , especially on the Nth-East Coast and the Aupouri Peninsula), that tsunami have certainly been no strangers to the region in the past :shock : ) - The Rumbles in The Kermadic's being just about the smoking gun ....

Hello, mrpanzergeneral,

Thanks for the welcome and your very well considered thoughts. Nice colour graphics, again. Very informative.

I must agree that the seismic unknowns can be bewildering. Folks will have to make the best decisions that they can with the available evidence. Drawing on Divine inspiration is a possible alternative

Anyone here from the south-eastern area of the South Island? Would be interesting to hear from someone with boots on the ground about the pros and cons of the area. Some advice from the perspective of a native or long-term resident there?

Anyone else with a vote for a favourite sheltering/surviving area in Aotearoa?

Cheers folks,

- Michael

mrpanzergeneral wrote :



Well I'm sure you are a whangai member of te Whanau... at least by marriage... I think that gives you some rights to claim it as 'yours' (a shareholder at least)

Hope the Whanau are open minded enough to share if we all need to run for the hills... ?

Cool maps General, very informative. And comforting to see our Northern corner looking comparatively safe. Still vulnerable to tsunami from the kermadecs, but relatively safe from our own seismic activity.

As for the other 'safe' corner of the country... down in the South East of the South Island... It may not be so shaky, but it does not have the most hospitable climate. The growing season is quite short and rather restrictive down there.

I believe the North is the better option for survival, given that we will most likely have to grow our own food.

All will be welcome come time of any disaster, of course.

Regards,
MPG.

I was one of the lucky ones to get flyers about May 21st Judgement Day, apparently it didn't happen. Maybe this Mayan prophecy is simply another May 21st. I am simply saying there needn't be fear among the populus, we should be intuitive and logical and open to new ideas and possibilities. Do stock up some emergency needs as mentioned by our Civil Defence personnels, maybe just do a bit more than that to customized items for our particular location and needs. Do share thoughts with friends, chuch members, pray for the better and Doomsday maybe just another day after all.

However in saying all that we do have some but insufficient evidence of an approaching planet with it's moons that may cause havoc to earth due to it's gravitational tug and pull on us, the well known Elenin where tall aliens live called Annunakis. We sure hope it would be a smooth transition, which will not be doomsday destructive but merely say another mag 10 shake somewhere near the faults on major plate tectonics fault lines. Dug in stay in tents. Survive on own backyard veges produce and canned food. Stay away from high crime cities, plenty of backup contingency plans. Etc needless to continue... God Bless

Hi guys, first time poster here.

Having read your posts and plans for 2012 I would like your opinions on the UK and what you predict for the next year or so. I live about an hour from London and after recent events in London (riots) I have become concerned about being here if things are to get worse as is widely predicted by the Mayans amongst others.

To start I should make clear I have never visited your country but have always wanted to - it looks beautiful!

Would you recommend relocating to NZ? Obviously there are geographical/geological concerns but I am more worried about civil unrest.

If so, which part, and what skills would useful once there?

Is it difficult to gain residence there? Bearing in mind my work involves computers - SEO to be specific.

Thankyou in advance, any opinions would be much appreciated.

Richard.

Hello Richard.
You should be able to find out most of what you need to know here, http://www.immigration.govt.nz/
Shouldn't be too hard there are plenty of Brits here.
As for civil unrest there is not much to speak of.

I don't see that there are to much in the way of geological concerns, sure we have earthquakes but the majority of them are small or hit isolated areas. The concern would be if 2012 relates to earth movement but nobody knows that. Anywhere could be as bad as anywhere else.

I'm banking on NZ being a good spot to be because of the isolation and small population. I'll stick to the North Island because I don't like the cold. The past few days have cemented that decision.
I'm more worried about a Dalton minimum than earth upheaval. If it's cold up here it's bollocking down South!

Agreed fenriswulf... I can't handle the cold at all, so I live in the 'subtropical' North, which is also the most seismically stable part of the country... see mrpanzergeneral's map earlier in the thread.

Right now we are enduring a cold snap/weather extreme that has seen mild snow fall in Auckland for the first time in 80 years. Of course the whole planet is experiencing weather extremes so nothing too unusual I guess.

A little more harsh further south according to this mornings newspaper... photo from Canterbury... South Island.



That's why I live 1000 kms or more to the North...

Despite our recent quakes in the deep South, I am still quite confident that NZ is the safest corner of the globe. Nuclear pollution will be mostly contained within the Northern hemisphere, along with most of the other waste circulating in your Northern oceans, and airstream.

We have a small population and enough resources to be completely self sufficient... And there is that prophecy... "The safest place during Armageddon will be the furthest point from Jerusalem"... somewhere in the Pacific just off our coast... !!!

We do have to watch out for tsunamis coming in from unstable areas out in the Pacific... particularly the Kermadec ridge, but then you don't have to live right on the coast. I am a little close for comfort, but a few kilometers inland and up on a ridge... I am confident that at least a Japan sized tsunami would flow past my ridge and continue down the valley.

Oh, and WELCOME to the forum Richard...

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts, it really is invaluable to me.


It doesn't make sense to me that any of the predictions are based on large-scale earth movement - this is a cycle that has happened to mankind many times before, let alone the Earth so that doesn't seem logical. The isolated spot and small population is what attracted me to New Zealand - it ticks an awful lot of boxes. Importantly the language/culture issue that may be difficult in some of the other countries i've considered like Norway or Sweden. The Dalton minimum is a new one to me but it sounds almost impossible to predict.


I never thought New Zealand could be so cold, even in winter! Good point about nuclear fallout that I hadn't considered to be honest. I guess I don't like to think about things getting that bad. It seems like the North Island is going to be the best bet, both in terms of weather but also finding a job (thanks for the link fenriswulf) I'm guessing it'd be easy enough to switch islands if the need arose?

Reckon I'l come backpacking or something for a few months first - however idyllic it seems it is a long way from home after all!

Thanks for having me, and for the useful info

Happy to be living in the turquoise zone. (according to Generals map)
I'm fairly close to the coast but think that is a good thing in terms of having food options available, high enough above anything but giant tsunami's and reasonably far enough away from large populations.

The Dalton minimum runs a fairly good chance off happening; http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2 ... spots.html which would be slightly less severe than the Maunder.
Cold weather is massively disruptive to our modern lives, as we are experiencing here with road and airport closures, being cut off from food supplies etc, it's easy to see how quickly society could break down.

Yes, very true , we are/have been prepared with extra food stocks, water ,deisil tank fullish , my only concern was if baby decided to come early, we were not prepared and thankfully baby still just cruising quietly in womb , lsol